Potential recession leaves investors needing to shift focus

recession/global-economy/kerry-craig/JP-Morgan-Asset-Management/

12 April 2019
| By Chris Dastoor |
image
image
expand image

The global economy has shown some recovery, but there still is evidence of a looming recession and investors should be wary.

Kerry Craig, global market strategist for JP Morgan Asset Management, said investors should focus on income during this point of the economic cycle.

“We know we’re moving from that summer to autumn period here, it’s the same as we’re seeing a cooling in the weather and a cooling in the economy.”

“The yield that inverted was three months, typically when the yield curve inverts it’s a signal of recession and it inverts everywhere, not just in one part.”

“It is a pretty good predictor of a recession, we have seven cases where it has led to a recession with an average of fourteen months.”

Craig said this is a strong predictor, as there had been seven cases where it has led to a recession, with an average of fourteen months.

“If you did believe that yield curve inversion was going to set-off a recession, you’ve got about a year to start thinking about your portfolio and changing it,” Craig said.

“But it’s not always right, there have been two false signals.”

Read more about:

AUTHOR

Recommended for you

sub-bgsidebar subscription

Never miss the latest news and developments in wealth management industry

MARKET INSIGHTS

So we are now underwriting criminal scams?...

2 months 3 weeks ago

Glad to see the back of you Steve. You made financial more expensive, not more affordable as you claim, and presided ...

2 months 3 weeks ago

Completely agree Peter. The definition of 'significant change is circumstances relevant to the scope of the advice' is s...

4 months 4 weeks ago

ASIC has suspended the Australian Financial Services Licence of a Melbourne-based financial advice firm....

1 week 5 days ago

The corporate regulator has issued infringement notices to three AFSLs whose financial advisers provided personal advice to a retail client while unregistered....

2 weeks 3 days ago

ASIC has released the results of its first adviser exam to be held in 2025, with 241 candidates attempting the test....

3 weeks 1 day ago

TOP PERFORMING FUNDS

ACS FIXED INT - AUSTRALIA/GLOBAL BOND