Offshore markets the tip for 2002
A meeting of the minds facilitated byMorningstarrecently concluded that international sharemarkets offer the best growth opportunities for Australian investors in the next 12 months.
The Morningstar Expert Asset Allocation Panel, a group of external industry heads who meet on a quarterly basis, considered the after-effects of the September 11 attacks on the US as well as the prospect of a US led resurgence in growth.
“The consensus was that after the successive monetary and fiscal stimuli from the US Federal Reserve in the aftermath of September 11, on top of a recovery already in the pipeline, amount to what one Expert Panel member coined ‘the mother of all stimuli’,” says panel chairman Donal Curtin.
He says the stimulus should lead to significant growth in the US economy over the coming year, and should also trigger a worldwide recovery, with beneficial effects for international sharemarkets. In the meantime, however, the panel warned against possible wild swings before the recovery becomes obvious to investors.
Australian shares were tipped to have a good year, but not a great one, due to the possibility of being outpaced by “higher beta” offshore markets with greater leverage to a US recovery. Australian listed property will have a more modest year, the panel says, while international fixed interest failed to impress the panel, going on current value levels.
The Expert Panel is comprised of: Morningstar head of research Daisy Chee; international economic consultant Donal Curtin (chair);AMP Henderson Global Investorschief investment officer Merv Peacock;JB Were Investment Managementhead of institutional and investment strategist Suzanne Branton;Merrill Lynch Investment Managersdirector David Hudson;Rothschild Australia Asset Managementinvestment director Jonathan Pain; Armstrong Jones (NZ) chief investment officer David McClatchy; BT Funds Management (NZ) chief executive Craig Stobo.
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